Why I’m Voting for John McCain
I am a fiscal libertarian and social conservative, yet I have supported John McCain’s bid to be President ever since Sam Brownback dropped out last October. Most of my friends supported other candidates in the South Carolina primary. The 29614 (Bob Jones University) vote overwhelmingly split its support among three candidates: Mitt Romney (the BJ establishment choice), Mike Huckabee (relatively apolitical staff and students), and Ron Paul (my libertarian friends…Michael Collins, I am thinking of you). So why did I choose the Republican candidate popularly thought to be the most liberal?
First I’d like to mention the issues on which I substantially disagree with John McCain. He co-sponsored the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance legislation which restricts free speech, albeit ineffectively. Also, he has made noises in favor of, though not cast any major votes on, global warming legislation, most of which would overburden the economy without appreciable effect on global temperature (in this I agree with every conservative’s favorite Danish homosexual, Bjorn Lomberg).
Okay, but why do I support McCain even though I disagree with his trademark legislation?
Immigration.
John McCain is the only remaining candidate who supports an immigration policy that would not be disastrous for our country and the Republican party.
This statement may be controversial in our circles. Many conservatives were raised on a steady diet of Rush Limbaugh, entertained adolescent fantasies about marrying Ann Coulter, and regularly listened to the GLENN BECK SHOW [just typing it like the radio ads say it]. There is an inverse proportion between how accurately that describes you and your affinity with Jose Sanchez, your friendly neighborhood gardener who “misplaced” his social security card.
I once believed like you…but then I examined the data. Immigration flows reflect the American demand for labor. During periods of economic expansion immigrations flows increase while during economic downturns immigration decreases. That’s the basic law of supply and demand. America, in part because of our abortion policy expunging tens of millions of potential workers, has had a labor shortage for most of the last two decades. We needed more workers. Most of the jobs being filled were in construction, lawncare, and the service industry, jobs that American natives are typically less desirous of. The American workforce is aging rapidly and our taxable wages are shrinking in proportion to total population (thank you Mr. and Mrs. Baby Boomer entitlement programs). If the labor supply does not meet the demand, the economy cannot expand.
Normally, conservatives (who tend towards economic liberalism a la Adam Smith) oppose government intervention in the market. Yet for some reason they have allied with the unions in favor of restricting the labor market. This bandwagon is so popular among rank and file conservatives, and particularly among evangelical voters, that all the candidates, except one, have jumped on board. The candidates have rallied around border fence legislation (ironic phrasing anybody?), which is perfectly okay, but have not embraced immigration reform. Some have even called for deporting all of the twelve million plus illegal immigrants (yes, my finger is pointing at Romney). I greatly prefer McCain’s stance which not only supports a border wall, but would also reform the quota system and provide a path toward citizenship for illegal immigrants.
Essentially, the status quo does not allow common laborers to legally migrate, yet those are precisely the type of workers our economy needs. Unsurprisingly the demand for labor trumps our misguided quota system, in effect encouraging illegal immigration. By and large they came for work. We needed workers. They should not be excessively penalized for providing us a service. Instead we should honor their desire to work hard for personal betterment and their wish to become a member of the American community; if that’s not the American Dream than what is? We need to build a wall, sure, but we also need to reform the quota system and allow illegal immigrants a chance to assimilate.
That briefly describes the advantages of pro-immigration reform to America as a whole. Yet the advantages to the Republican Party are just as great. Once upon a time there was a large core group of solidly Republican voters: blacks. Why did the black community switch parties during FDR’s presidency and the Civil Rights era, fueling a Democratic domination of the House for seventy years? To a degree, Republicans drove them away with their opposition to desegregation. We are setting ourselves up to do the same thing to Latinos. President Bush made historic gains during the 2000 election in the Latino community. Those gains have steadily eroded as Republican opposition to immigration reform has coalesced.
The pitfall awaiting the Republican party could be even more severe than that caused by the reversal of black loyalties. The Hispanic demographic is growing by leaps and bounds. In the foreseeable future it is likely that blacks and hispanics will comprise a full third of our population. It would take a miracle for the Republican Party to survive a third of the population voting solidly for Democratic candidates without drastically changing its ideology.
On a smaller stage, do you remember which swing state determined the 2000 election? If Bush had not found significant support in Florida’s Latino community than he would have had no chance of beating Al Gore, thus losing the White House. Florida remains a key state for any Republican presidential hopeful. Because of his stance on immigration, McCain is the candidate most able to win Florida in the national election.
In summary, I support John McCain because I believe the most significant issue facing America and the Republican Party in the next four years is immigration. John McCain’s pro-immigration position could help keep our economy, and our party, viable.
I tried to keep it brief and just touch on the main points, but the devil, as always, lies in the details. Please have fun disagreeing with me, and I will in turn do my very best to convince you of my veracity.
A recent article in the economist mentioned that making it harder for illegals to cross the border actually gives them more incentive to bring their families and stay year round and adds to the strain on social services.
Interesting. The drain on social services (healthcare, education, etc.) caused by illegal immigrants is a matter of some debate. Those with strong antipathy for illegal immigrants often argue that immigrants do not contribute as much to the system in taxes as they take in services. Ironically, illegals as a whole actually contribute more in taxes than others in their pay bracket; many illegals use fake SS numbers to work for legitimate employers like Walmart. But since they do not want to be detected, they do not file their income taxes and get no return, unlike legal taxpayers who work for similar wages. Indeed, illegals are about the only low income workers who actually pay federal and state income taxes.
Also, it is important to remember that the principal problem is our whacked tax system. They are a drain on the system primarily because they are poor, not because they are illegal immigrants. Poor Americans are an even greater drain on the system since they can get their taxes back and can apply for foodstamps, welfare, and medicare/medicaid. In fact, most middle class households get more in government benefits than they pay into the system, so if you pay less than $20,000 in taxes a year, you are a drain on the economy.
The only pragmatic solution would be to just deport all the poor people in the US. Since I am poor I hope you’ll reconsider.
I’ve been informally polling friends about whom they support. Most support Romney or Huckabee, a few supported Thompson, but only one other than you supports McCain. I was surprised that so few people from 29614 support McCain.
I find your arguments for McCain’s immigration policy to be persuasive, and there is no denying that it is a vital issue. I wonder, though, if you would care to explain why you think that immigration is the number one issue.
I think the BJ community still carries baggage from the 2000 campaign between McCain and Bush (Dr. Hand included). Perception is reality in politics, or at least perception is votes. McCain was, and to some degree still is, considered the “anti-evangelical” Republican. For example, if you look at the exit polls on cnn.com from Florida or South Carolina voters who attended church services little or not at all were far more likely to vote for McCain. McCain has used that perception to his advantage since it helps him capture votes among independents and moderate Republicans who are suspicious of the Religious Right.
Why do I hold immigration on a pedestal this election? Good question. I should start by pointing out that I do not believe it is the most significant/important issue in politics generally. Moral issues trump the pragmatic any day.
Yet the next President will have only limited influence over certain hard fought moral issues that were once the principal litmus tests for conservative candidates: abortion and homosexual marriage. No Republican President, whether Romney or McCain is going to veto a bill with overwhelming support from the conservative base; about the only thing a President can do in the fight against abortion is nominate anti-abortion justices. All the candidates have pledged their support to nominate strict Constructionists to the Supreme Court if elected. The push against homosexual marriage is only going to be successful on the state level; a national Constitutional amendment is pie in the sky. So I think the moral issues are moot in this primary.
Immigration trumps all other issues in my mind because of the far reaching effects on both the economy and our party. Conservative Republicanism could remain viable after defeats on most other issues, but not if we back the wrong side on immigration. Besides, the principal Republican candidates pretty much agree on most other issues like Iraq and downsizing the government. So immigration is one of the few points of substantive disagreement among the candidates.
What other issues would you think could be considered top priorities?
A few other issues that I would consider top priorities are Iraq, the economy, and health care. I wasn’t thinking of anything in particular that was more important than immigration; I was just curious why you thought immigration was the top issue.
Perhaps the fact that McCain DEMONIZED evangelical leaders in the 2000 election would sort of made me think twice before voting for him, but there are other, more relevant, concerns.
I wish not to list them, but to state my complaints with your position.
1. You provide a typical ends justify means argument. Currently, they are criminals, and, until the law changes, we punish criminals. I don’t care how useful they are to farmers in the SW; I’m not going to buy into the emotion of Les Miserables, and neither does Romney.
2. You seem to support the “McCain of Old” (i.e., a couple weeks before he won the NH primary). My point is that McCain has allegedly (although I don’t believe it for a second) changed positions on immigration. Either you shouldn’t want to support him anymore OR you’re okay with hypocrites willing to say one thing to get into office and, once in office, do another. Romney changed his mind once. Let’s see how many times McCain is willing to “change his mind” in order to get elected.
3. Tax cuts help the economy just as, if not more (i.e., tried and true), effectively as immigration reform, yet it was McCain who twice voted against Bush’s tax cuts. And let’s not be children: he voted against the tax cuts because they favored the wealthy. I could pull a quote, but it’s not necessary. He hugely supports gov’t intervention, and not just in the economy. But because the economy matters so much to you, I don’t see how you could support him. Romney’s always been fiscally liberal.
First, I applaud your choice. I’m relieved at who is NOT a likely nominee, because I really didn’t want to have to vote for Obama, cute as he is.
Second, I tend to agree with your leaning on immigration. I’ve helped a few people seek asylum and get citizenship, and I can testify first-hand that the system is grotesquely flawed. I also find the vehemence with which many conservatives express their anti-immigrant views utterly distasteful–it’s ironic that they insist so strenuously that embryos deserve dignity as members of the human race, while acting as though immigrants do not.
Third, I am highly amused that you identify Huckabee supporters as “relatively apolitical staff and students.” Spot on.
Answers for Tim.
1. Yes, they are criminals. So are you…remember that time we got stopped for speeding on the way back from Charleston? Do all crimes deserve the same level of punishment? Of course not. I would argue that the crime of illegal immigration is comparitively minor, not deserving deportation. A speeding ticket for breaking the speed limit is just so a fine for breaking our geographic limit also seems just.
2. Sure, McCain changed his rhetoric to emphasize security and downplay immigration, but that’s what politicians do. The real question is what they do when the rubber hits the road and they are forced to act. John McCain supported immigration against self-interest last year, so I am willing to trust he will do so when in office. Mitt Romney has changed his rhetoric about a host of issues (ie abortion), but we have not had a chance to see him in action. Kind of a moot point now anyways I guess.
3. Tax cuts are good for the economy, I agree. But not when they cause a deficit because spending is not reigned in. Our economy may prosper, but you can’t have something for nothing. The Bush deficit will come back to haunt us or our children in the future.
Thanks for commenting on the post Becca. I don’t know exactly why conservatives so dislike illegal immigration. I wonder if our ardent nationalism plays a role; “They aren’t Americans so…”
Odd thought since we are a nation of relatively recent immigrants. Ellis Island represents one of the greatest moments in American history in my opinion. My usual efficacy arguments in support of immigration are all well and good, but I also would be hard pressed to explain Biblically why I, as an American citizen, am more deserving of anything than someone from Central America.