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August 31, 2008

Palin Signals Shift in Focus for McCain Campaign

Filed under: Politics, Uncategorized — paulmatzko @ 9:24 pm
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In my last post I noted that one of Sarah Palin’s weaknesses as a vice presidential candidate was her lack of experience. Sure enough, Democratic operatives and journalists have made Palin + inexperience = risky choice the dominant storyline. Republicans are also worried that McCain has handicapped his strongest line of attack against Obama.

Up until this weekend “experience” has been the primary narrative of McCain 2008. The Republican party had selected a war hero who had served in Congress for as many years as his opponent, Barack Obama, had been post-pubescent. Although McCain’s campaign brandishes his lengthy resume, he likes to be seen as a maverick, willing to buck his own party for what he believes is right.

The Democratic Party countered attacks on Obama’s inexperience by transforming it from a liability into a strength. They present a young, fresh visionary who has not been tied down to special interests. Obama is a new kind of politician who will reform Washington.

Since politicians are elected largely on image, McCain needs to burnish his own maverick identity while simultaneously poking holes in Obama’s reputation as the rebirth of JFK. The experience debate has served McCain well, but over time it may have lost its bite. Voters who find experience a compelling argument have already been won over. No point in beating a dead horse. Experience could even be a liability if the opposition can paint McCain as a professional politician whose values are divorced from those of ordinary Americans. McCain is old enough to remember the 1960 Nixon v Kennedy campaign. In an environment more congenial to Republicans than today, Nixon ran on his superior experience, but still lost to the youthful and exciting Kennedy.

Palin provides the McCain campaign with the opportunity to switch the dialogue from experience to reform. Obama has dominated this conversation so far with talk of change and a different style of politics. Yet McCain and Palin could subsume Obama’s message. (Subsume is a debate term for taking your opponent’s premise, or primary issue, and arguing that you can do a better job with it than they can.) 

McCain has been something of a political outsider for the last decade in Congress. The conservative base has distrusted McCain since his centrist campaign against George W Bush. McCain has not been afraid to buck the party line on immigration and other issues. He even cosponsored legislation with conservative archenemy Ted Kennedy. It seems that Palin has managed to annoy nearly the entire Republican establishment in Alaska. She publicly supported investigations into the infamous pair Don Young and Ted Stevens. She resigned from an energy commission in protest at a Republican commisioner’s corruption. How’s that for bipartisanship and reform?

The McCain campaign should push this reformist image on the news shows and in their campaign analysis. Republican operatives should then highlight Obama’s thin record on bipartisanship and perilous connections with shady politics back in Chicago.

Obama likes to tell the story of how he couldn’t even gain admission to the 2000 Democratic National Convention. What explains his meteoric rise through the state legislature and into Congress? Obama made several connections to the notorious Chicago Democratic political machine. Ever since Obama began making waves in the Democratic primary, there has been an undercurrent of articles, and a book, written about his relationships to shady Chicago political operatives.

One story that has gotten some play in the national media is his relationship with Tony Rezko, a man who was a major fundraiser for Obama’s Senate campaign. Rezko was also found guilty of federal fraud this May and is currently under indictment for several more fraud charges. Obama was understandably embarassed after Rezko’s indictment and said that he had never done Rezko any “favors.” However Obama had written a series of letters to Illinois government officials on Rezko’s behalf in a bid to get taxpayer money ($14 million) to build apartments for the elderly, $855,000 of which went in fees to Rezko and Obama’s former boss, Allison Davis. Whether or not Obama thought he was doing Rezko a favor, it seems that Rezko was grateful enough to sell the Obama’s a strip of land next to the family’s new house for over $500,000 less than what the political fixer had paid for it six months earlier. Keep in mind, this land deal came after the feds investigation into Rezko was already public knowledge.

Furthermore, Obama began his Congressional campaign under the patronage of Emil Jones, then the Democratic leader of the Illinois Senate.

“You have the power to elect a US senator,” Obama told Emil Jones, Democratic leader of the Illinois state senate. Jones looked at the ambitious young man smiling before him and asked, teasingly: “Do you know anybody I could make a US senator?”

According to Jones, Obama replied: “Me.” It was his first, audacious step in a spectacular rise from the murky political backwaters of Springfield, the Illinois capital.

Jones used his leadership in the Senate to block anti-corruption legislation from becoming law even though the bill had already unanimously passed through the lower chamber. Jones also recently announced his retirement and filed to have his inexperienced son take his position, nepotism worthy of Richard J. Daley himself in the 1970s.

Finally, Obama’s campaign manager, David Axelrod, ran Richard M. Daley’s mayoral election in 1989 and is still one of Daley’s advisers. He surprised liberal Chicago reformers by running the campaigns of several other distasteful Cook County politicians. In his defense Axelrod may have just done it for the money and to gain influence. But when comparing clients, Axelrod makes Karl Rove look like a boy scout.

So Obama’s campaign manager, political patron, and a major fundraiser are all connected to a sordid Chicago political machine. Sure, Obama himself has not been directly accused of corruption, but when a man runs a campaign about change and reform, surely he should be held to a higher standard of association than Rezko, Jones, and Axelrod, Inc.

While the Republicans’ experience argument was based upon how much we know about McCain’s impressive resume, it left Obama’s record in the dark (which was the point). But if the McCain campaign switches the dialogue to reform, highlighting McCain’s support for campaign finance reform and his pledge to abide by public financing limits (unlike Obama who welshed on his promise), the burden of proof shifts to Obama and focuses on his past. If Republicans can focus the public’s attention on Obama’s seedy Chicago connections, than Obama’s image will suffer severely, especially among Independent voters.

August 30, 2008

John McCain Chooses a Hockey Mom

Filed under: Politics — paulmatzko @ 1:59 am
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Today John McCain surprised the pundit panoply by announcing Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Odds on favorite for the Vice Presidential nod was Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty along with a bevy of failed contenders from the Republican primary. McCain’s choice of Palin was such a surprise that the NPR correspondents covering the topic today were audibly astounded, sputtering their surprise that the former mayor of Wasilla, Alaska (population: 8,471) would even be considered; I think they hoped that John McCain was just joshin’ around and would let the country in on his little joke after a couple hours. Sorry, but McCain only jokes around about his age and bombing Iran.

Who is Sarah Palin and how does she benefit John McCain’s presidential campaign? These questions are intertwined and so I’ll discuss them in tandem.

1) Sarah Palin is a woman. Voters tend to pull the lever for the candidate with whom they most identify and more than half of those voters are women. Palin’s selection is a transparent bid for female voters who supported Hillary Clinton during the Democratic primary. The political buzz during the Democratic National Convention centered on the unknown numbers of Hillary fans who had yet to succumb to Obamamania. Sarah Palin gave a shoutout to those undecided voters by honoring Geraldine Ferraro and Hillary Clinton during her acceptance speech. Even if you don’t end up voting for her, how can you help but respect a woman who rides snowmobiles, hunts moose, shoots assault rifles, marries a semi-professional snowmobile racer, raises five children, oh and governs Alaska in her spare time?

2) Sarah Palin’s candidacy was designed to upstage Barack Obama. The news cycle is king in politics (read George Stephanopoulos’s All Too Human sometime). Barack Obama gave an excellent speech in Denver Friday night and the Saturday morning news gave him full coverage. But after only 12 hours of headlines, “Barack Obama Gives Historic Acceptance Speech” gave way to “John McCain Surprises With Alaskan Hockey Mom.” The political wonks have enough new material for discussion to carry them into the Republican National Convention next week. If McCain had chosen a safe candidate like Pawlenty or Romney no one would have been surprised and most of the upstage value would have been lost.

The Obama campaign wanted Americans to connect Obama’s speech at the DNC with Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech 45 years before. Obama had received the Civil Rights mantle. So the McCain campaign calls the opening bid and ups the ante by presenting Sarah Palin close to the anniversary of the passage of the Nineteenth Amendment. Adding insult to injury, Palin ended her speech co-opting Obama’s slogan: 

If you want change in Washington, if you hope for a better America, then we’re asking for your vote on the 4th of November.

3) Sarah Palin reinforces John McCain’s maverick image. McCain is famous, or infamous depending on your perspective, for bucking the Republican establishment on everything from immigration to campaign finance reform. Palin has caused great consternation among the incumbent Republican legislators in Alaska. She pushed ethics reform and turned whistle-blower on Republican colleagues. She draws a favorable contrast to Obama who ascended the political ladder under the auspices of the Chicago Democratic political machine.

4) Palin’s selection energizes the conservative base. Many leading conservative lights had backed Mitt Romney in the Republican primary and have nursed sore feelings and misgivings ever since McCain’s victory. But the some of the same Republicans who actively opposed McCain, and even proposed voting for Hillary Clinton instead, have found themselves newly excited by a McCain-Palin ticket. She is a social conservative and an evangelical (she used Biblical phraseology during her speech when talking about “blessings” and having “a servant’s heart.”). Conservatives who had been concerned that McCain would choose a pro-choice Tom Ridge or Joe Lieberman are relieved. Now James Dobson is on board and even Rush Limbaugh exults over having a conservative “babe on the ticket.”

5) Sarah Palin could energize independent voters. She mentioned in her speech that she took on big oil and special interests in Alaska, populist rhetoric that plays well among independents. She is a former union member herself and is married to a current United Steelworker, perhaps another appeal to working class Reagan Democrats. 

The buzz about Palin is not all positive. Democrats were quick to pounce on her inexperience. The argument goes like this: “You accuse Barack of being inexperienced because he has only served in the Senate for four years, but then you nominate a candidate who was the mayor of Nowhere, Alaska just two years ago!” I’m sure the McCain campaign is hedging on his surplus of experience to make up for her lack. Still it is worth noting that Palin is the only one of the four campaigners to have any executive experience since McCain, Biden, and Obama are all legislators!

There is also an ongoing investigation of Palin possibly misusing her powers as Governor to fire someone for not firing her brother-in-law. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens, but I’m sure Democratic operatives will make this a talking point on the Sunday morning news shows.

Now that McCain has already made his choice for VP this weekend how will he be able to keep people interested in the upcoming Republican National Convention? On the first night of the convention former Democratic senator Joe Lieberman will mount the platform and warmly endorse John McCain for President. Three nights later John McCain should stand before his supporters and declare an end to partisan politics by announcing that Joe Lieberman will be the next Secretary of State.

 

April 24, 2008

Obama v. Hillary = Two Handicapped Candidates = Lucky 2008 for Republicans

Filed under: Politics — paulmatzko @ 11:33 pm
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The Grand Old Party should lose this year. The first Tuesday in November should be the greatest Republican rout in recent history. America is in a recession, in the middle of an unpopular war, and the incumbent Republican President, who has the highest disapproval ratings on record, is at the end of his second term.

Yet national polling shows Republican John McCain in a dead heat, and at times with a slight lead, over either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Incroiable! (more…)

April 17, 2008

Hillary Clinton Visits Northeast Philadelphia

Filed under: Politics — paulmatzko @ 11:29 pm
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Tonight Hillary finally realized that my vote was vital if she wanted to win, so she stopped at the Mayfair Diner a block and a half from my apartment. (more…)

March 18, 2008

Why We Shouldn’t Oppose Obama

Filed under: Politics — paulmatzko @ 7:11 pm
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Several decades ago, the incumbent governor of a Southern state was visited during his reelection campaign by a poor mother, three young children in tow. The woman asked the governor to please pardon her husband who was doing time in state prison. The governor saw a chance to win a vote and maybe some time on the evening news, so he asked the woman what her husband had been jailed for. “Stealing a pig,” she said. The governor then inquired, (more…)

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